2011 Trends for the South

The world has been through a dramatic and fascinating period since the global economic crisis erupted in 2008. While the wealthy, developed nations of the North have been pitched into one crisis after another, the countries of the global South (many of whom are well accustomed to crises) have been part of a powerful new economic phenomenon: the rapid growth of South-South trade, investment and exchange. Its effects include stronger ties between Asia and South America and between China and Africa.

South-South trade is the great economic success story of the past decade. World Trade Organization (WTO) (www.wto.org) figures show South-South trade grew to 16.4 percent of the US $14 trillion in total world exports in 2007, from 11.5 percent in 2000. While the global economic crisis has slowed trade down, the overall trend for South-South trade and connections seems firmly established.

South-South trade made up 20 percent of global exports by 2010, and foreign direct investment to developing economies rose by 10 percent in 2010 due to a rapid economic recovery and increasing South-South flows.

Trade between China and Africa has surged during the decade since China joined the WTO in 2001, from around US $10 billion in 2000 to US $73.3 billion in 2007, a year-on-year increase of 32.2 percent. By 2008, it had soared by 44.1 percent to reach a record high of US $106.84 billion, according to Zhang Yongpeng of the Institute for West Asian and African Studies (IWAAS).

The surge is remarkable and recent. For example, according to accountants KPMG, between 2001 and 2009 China invested just US $215 million in Brazil. But in 2010, China invested US $20 billion in energy and chemical companies in Argentina and Brazil. And Luis Alberto Moreno, president of the Inter-American Development Bank, told the Financial Times that “seven percent of Colombian gasoline has been replaced by domestic ethanol, produced with green Indian technology – while Indian companies, including Infosys and Tata, now have 17,000 employees in Latin America and the Caribbean.”

This jump in investment has also had its downside: coming fast and furious as investment cash chases better investment profits in the global South, it has pushed up inflation and commodity prices and spawned property speculation bubbles. This, as can be seen across North Africa and the Middle East, can lead to political and social instability.

A review of the big trends bubbling under the surface in 2011 shows how important South-South exchange will be in alleviating poverty and improving lives in the run-up to the 2015 Millennium Development Goals (http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/). It also shows up the dangers inherent in this new environment – rising inflation without economic growth can crush the poor. A focus on innovation and new thinking will be necessary to get through this year and beyond.

Some of the top trends that will have a big impact in 2011 are:

– Inflation: In 2011 it looks like we will hear a lot about inflation. As the global economy tries to stabilize and return to growth, there will be inflation surges for a wide variety of reasons. People will need strategies and new techniques to make sure they can afford the necessities of life. This will be critical if development gains from the past decade are not to be lost.

– Super cycle: Some are putting forward the theory we are entering a ‘super cycle’ (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-23/super-cycle-leaves-no-economy-behind-as-davos-shifts-to-growth-from-crisis.html) created by better connectivity, global travel and mobility and the ease of moving around investment to create businesses and jobs. The super cycle theory claims that this will spark the greatest period of human development in history – raising all national economies – as more and more people benefit from rising living standards and opportunities.

– Switch to South-South trade: With the trend of increasing South-South trade now firmly established, there is a greater awareness now of the power of sharing ideas across the South. One example of this idea-sharing is the annual Global South-South Development Expo (http://www.southsouthexpo.org/) run by UNDP’s Special Unit for South-South Cooperation Unit (http://ssc.undp.org/).

– New technologies: The spread of new technologies around the world will continue and bring many changes. Africa is seeing increasing access to high-speed Internet as new undersea cables are laid around the continent. Mobile phones will continue to be a critical tool for many to stay in touch and boost incomes.

– MDGs on horizon in 2015: The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) target of 2015 is just four years away. This will face the headwinds of the global economic crisis and urgent attention will be needed to make sure gains are not lost as 2015 approaches. The role played by South-South trade will be a critical partner in aiding goal achievements.

– Cities: A surge to the urban was pronounced by 2007 and we are now living in a majority urban world. Innovation and sharing experiences and knowledge will play a key role in ensuring this is not a disaster. A recent book, Arrival City by Canadian journalist Doug Saunders, detailed this urban surge occurring across the global South, the largest movement of people to cities and urban and semi-urban areas in human history. It follows the pattern that was seen in Europe in the 19th century, as economies change and people seek the new opportunities promised by cities, or find rural economies unsustainable.

– The China model of development: The big talking point will be China’s economic model for eradicating poverty on a mass scale. A new book by Dambisa Moyo, How the West Was Lost: Fifty Years of Economic Folly – And the Stark Choices Ahead, investigates the mistakes made in developed, Western nations and what can be learned from the experiences in the global South.

– Food crisis: At the beginning of February, the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) issued a warning about the risk of a new global food crisis after its food price index reached a record high in January 2011. The FAO also issued an alert about severe drought in China, the world’s largest wheat producer. Flooding in Brazil and Australia have also devastated crops, much of which are exported to countries across the South. There is also risk to crops from flooding in southern Africa. Wheat, corn and soybean prices are rising, and prices reached a peak just as they did in 2008 (FAO).

Even developed countries normally used to food surpluses are at risk. In the US, corn reserves are at a 15 year low (US Department of Agriculture), and the price of corn has doubled in past six months.

A billion people go to bed hungry every night; someone starves to death every 3.6 seconds – 75 percent are children under five, according to the World Food Programme (http://www.wfp.org/1billion).

Africa’s Consumer Market in Spotlight for 2011

While other parts of the world will spend 2011 worrying about their debt levels and how to spur economic growth, many factors are pointing to Africa potentially following a different story. A frenzy of activity has been building around Africa’s market opportunities and its growing middle class consumer population. Years of steady growth rates up to 2008 and the vast, untapped opportunities on the continent have sparked interest from investors and businesses alike.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) to developing economies rose by 10 percent in 2010 due to fast economic recovery and increasing South-South flows. Africa peaked in 2008 because of the resource boom and fell by 14 percent to US $50 billion in 2010 (UNCTAD). Rising FDI from Asia and Latin America has still yet to match the decline from developed countries – still the majority of FDI to Africa.

However, foreign direct investment to Africa had risen sixfold to US $58.56 billion between 2000 and 2009 (UNCTAD). The amount going to manufacturing and services has been growing, despite the slow down in 2009 because of the global economic downturn. Africa’s 11 largest economies are now being seen as the next to match Brazil and Russia, economic stars of the last few years.

The continent as a whole forms the 10th largest economy in the world. Of Africa’s more than 1 billion people, 900 million can be classified as part of the consumer economy. Out of this group, there is a third – approximately 300 million people – who make modest sums by Western standards, about US $200 a month, but have spare cash to buy things like mobile phones, DVDs and new clothes, or pay for better schools. They are the population that is overlooked when attention is focused only on the very poor living on less than US $2 a day.

This vast group is captured in the book Africa Rising by University of Texas professor Vijay Mahajan, which details the phenomenon of Africa’s middle class consumer society. He calls this group of middle class consumers “Africa 2,” with the desperately poor called Africa 3s, and the extremely rich Africa 1s.

This new group has expanded far beyond ruling elites and government workers. Many of its members work in the private sector, as secretaries, computer entrepreneurs, merchants and others who have benefited from consistent growth rates in many African countries.

The portion of African households with discretionary spending power rose from 35 percent in 2000 to 43 percent in 2008. The challenge will be to turn this wealth to the benefit of made-in-Africa businesses and to create stable, high-quality jobs to ensure this wealth effect lasts.

The new wealth effect can give Africa the tools needed to tackle its long-standing development challenges and lift more and more people out of poverty and misery while reducing dependence on foreign aid. And this can add rocket fuel to the surge toward meeting the Millennium Development Goals deadline in 2015 (http://mdgs.un.org/unsd/mdg/Default.aspx).

The rapidly rising profile of Africa is reflected by the prestigious business newspaper the Wall Street Journal recently running a series titled “Africa’s Growing Consumer Class Lures Multinationals” (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704720804576009672053184168.html).

Consulting firm McKinsey (http://www.mckinsey.com/) believes Africa’s billion citizens should be seen as consumers and says the continent’s growing number of middle-income consumers now outstrips India’s. It boldly claims consumer spending will reach US $1.4 trillion in Africa by 2020, up from US $860 billion in 2008. Consumer spending rose by 16 percent a year from 2005 to 2008 before the global economic crisis.

It is forecast that 220 million Africans now frozen out of this consumer wave will become consumers by 2015 if current trends continue.

The IMF believes the steady growth will continue, with 5.5 percent growth for the 47 sub-Saharan countries this year.

That’s the good news. But many African countries still rank at the bottom in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business survey (http://www.doingbusiness.org/rankings). Africa remains a logistical nightmare for companies. Poor quality roads, inadequate harbours and inefficient rail systems, all make it difficult to move goods around the continent and across borders.

This makes distribution in Africa costly. Companies also often have to import building supplies and equipment to construct factories and plants. Then there is the unreliable electricity supply. Unable to trust local power supplies, many companies use their own electricity generators.

If handled right, new brands and companies are set to join African global success stories like Mo Ibrahim (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mo_Ibrahim), who founded the mobile telecommunications company Celtel.

Some of the new success stories include African companies pairing up with global firms as they seek local knowledge and experience. This will be a substantial opportunity for companies wise enough to organise themselves for global competition. In 2010, Sweden’s Electrolux – one of the world’s largest makers of home appliances – bought Egypt’s Olympic Group (http://www.ameinfo.com/145039.html), a North African powerhouse for household goods.

In the Ivory Coast, Nouvelle Parfumerie Gandour (http://www.npgandour.com/english/index.html) – makers of perfume, cologne, cosmetics and talcs – is an African cross-border success story. It has factories in Ivory Coast, Senegal, Morocco and Cameroon. Thirty percent of its profits come from exports, some of which are to the United States and Europe.

Sonatrach (http://www.sonatrach-dz.com/NEW/) in Algeria is the largest oil and gas company in Algeria and Africa. Is using its base in oil and gas exploration, production, pipeline transportation and marketing of hydrocarbons and by products, to move into other areas. It is increasing its investments in power generation, new and renewable energies, water desalination, and mining exploration and exploitation. Looking to grow its business with 30 percent coming from exports by 2015, it has spread across Africa ( Mali , Niger , Libya , Egypt ), to Spain , Italy , Portugal , United Kingdom , Peru and the United States.

Marwa (http://www.marwa.es/) from Casablanca, Morocco, is an African fashion success story. The brand started by Karim Tazi in 2003 began with just two stores in Casablanca and Rabat. It identified the niche of very fashionable but good quality and inexpensive clothing. It blends international trends with subtle influences from Moroccan tradition. Its prices hover between six euros for a t-shirt and 100 euros for a coat. It has successfully created a Moroccan high-street fashion look that can be exported. It has opened a branch in Zaragoza, Spain and is expanding to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Paris, France, Beirut, Lebanon and Istanbul, Turkey.

A survey by consultants AT Kearney (http://www.atkearney.com) found eight out of nine West African subsidiaries of global consumer goods companies discovered quicker revenue growth than their parent companies.

All this new wealth and growth provides substantial opportunities to African brands to build their businesses and markets. The big issue will be who will rise to the occasion and who will be clever enough to learn from existing African brands that are already thriving and have shown the way.

Two trends will also power this growth: urbanization and large youth populations. Africa’s youthful, urban population has already been reached by the telecoms sector through the rapid growth of mobile phones. More than 500 million subscribers have been signed up since 2000 (Informa Telecom and Media), a user base greater than the entire US population.

“By 2040, the continent will be home to one in five of the planet’s young people and will have the world’s largest working-age population,” according to Charles Roxburgh and Susan Lund, authors of a study for the McKinsey Global Institute.

“If Africa can give its young people sufficient education and skills, they could be a substantial source of consumption and production in years ahead.”

By David South, Development Challenges, South-South Solutions

Published: January 2011

Development Challenges, South-South Solutions was launched as an e-newsletter in 2006 by UNDP's South-South Cooperation Unit (now the United Nations Office for South-South Cooperation) based in New York, USA. It led on profiling the rise of the global South as an economic powerhouse and was one of the first regular publications to champion the global South's innovators, entrepreneurs, and pioneers. It tracked the key trends that are now so profoundly reshaping how development is seen and done. This includes the rapid take-up of mobile phones and information technology in the global South (as profiled in the first issue of magazine Southern Innovator), the move to becoming a majority urban world, a growing global innovator culture, and the plethora of solutions being developed in the global South to tackle its problems and improve living conditions and boost human development. The success of the e-newsletter led to the launch of the magazine Southern Innovator.  

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China’s Booming Wine Market Can Boost South

A great South-South opportunity has emerged with the recent boom in wine drinking in China and the pursuit of quality tastes. Matching high-quality wine producers from the global South – including South Africa, Chile, Morocco, and Lebanon – with China’s thirsty wine drinkers could deliver a major income boost.

In the past year China has become the world’s fastest-growing wine market with newly wealthy seeking sophisticated tastes and young working women seeking the health benefits of wine (http://www.healthtree.com/articles/red-wine/). Yearly wine consumption in China is expected to increase by 20 percent to 126.4 million cases by 2014, a fact that is grabbing the attention of old and new-world wine producers.

Women are driving China’s growing market for wine, which is perceived as a symbol of affluence, a benefit to health – in moderation – and good for the skin. A new report from the International Wine and Spirit Research (IWSR) group says wine consumption in China and Hong Kong jumped 100 per cent between 2005 and 2009, from 46.9 million to 95.9 million cases.

Import taxes have been reduced as China entered the World Trade Organization (WTO), and this has prompted foreign wine brands to lunge into the market.

The government is trying to get people to switch away from high-strength alcoholic drinks by increasing the tax on them.

Awareness and experience varies widely amongst the winemakers of the global South. Some countries, such as South Africa, Chile and Argentina, have long-standing international reputations for producing quality wine, and use sophisticated branding and marketing campaigns to connect with their customers. But other countries, including Lebanon, Tunisia and Zimbabwe, have lower profiles and do not pack the same brand punch. But all these countries help show the role viticulture can play in economic development. By tapping into this Chinese wine drinking boom, they could reap rich rewards.

In Lebanon, viticulture – the harvesting of grapes for wine (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viticulture) – has prospered despite the country’s wars and instability.

Lebanon has a long and illustrious history of winemaking stretching back 5,000 years. The modern Lebanese wine industry dates itself from 1857, when Jesuit monks at Ksara in the Bekaa Valley began importing vines from Algeria. After World War I, when the French took control of Lebanon, its vineyards expanded to satisfy France’s thirsty imperial troops.

Then Lebanon was hit by the brutal civil war of the 70s and 80s. And things have remained unstable and uncertain since.

But despite this, well established businesses like Ksara (http://www.ksara.com.lb/), Kefraya (http://www.chateaukefraya.com/) and Musar (http://www.chateaumusar.com.lb/english/cave.aspx), and small boutique producers, thrive.

Massaya (http://www.massaya.com/old/wine.htm) is one of Lebanon’s most dynamic and successful wineries, owned by brothers Sami and Ramzi Ghosn. Both are Christians like many of the Lebanese winemakers. They have been able to succeed in an area fraught with tension from past conflicts.

Another winery is using the business to revive a community and restore old skills. In the hills east of Beirut, the BBC found Naji Boutros – who used to be an investment banker in London – and his wife Jill. Boutros started Chateau Belle-Vue in Bhamdoun (http://www.chateaubelle-vue.com/), in the village where he grew up. As well as producing wine, the Chateau finances community projects and a library.

The two kings in the global South of wine exports are South Africa and Chile. Both countries have very strong brand awareness in export markets and both have triumphed after years of boycotts due to the political situations in the respective countries (Chile’s military dictatorship and South Africa’s Apartheid regime).

Wine-making is one of South Africa’s oldest industries and plays a key part in the economy (http://www.wine.co.za/), with exports growing from less than 50 million litres in 1994 to more than 400 million litres in 2008 – year-on-year growth of 17 percent.

Since the end of the racist Apartheid regime (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_under_apartheid) in the mid-1990s, various government and industry initiatives have begun to reverse the iniquities of the country’s wine-making industry. South Africa has been pioneering switching black Africans on to the pleasures and profits of wine making and drinking.

Like Argentina, Chile (http://www.winesofchile.org/) has a strategic plan for its wine industry by 2020. It hopes to be “the Number One producer of sustainable and diverse premium wines from the New World by the year 2020.”

Chile – recovering from the severe earthquake on February 27, 2010 – uses a sophisticated marketing strategy to promote its wines, including websites, social networking media and events and tastings. Since 2007, it has unified its marketing efforts under one umbrella organization, the Vinos de Chile, and it also offers wine tourism to further develop a close relationship with drinkers, The Wines of Chile Experience (http://www.chilewinetourism.com/), launched in 2010.

Chile’s neighbour Argentina (http://www.winesofargentina.org/) is the world’s fifth largest producer of wine,

The country has seen its domestic consumption of wine shrink as tastes changed, and has also experienced very extreme economic fluctuations. It has had to raise its game in order to earn income from exporting. This has been a spur to the wine industry and it has seen growth since 1996.

Wine growing has a long history in Argentina, going back to its Spanish colonial foundations in the 1500s. Argentineans drank large quantities of wine domestically in the 1970s but this tailed off in the later decades.

That had been balanced by a great export success with wines from the malbec grape. The flavour of this wine and its brand image has proven to be a weighty ambassador for Argentinean wines in general. By keeping a competitive price, Argentinean wine has flourished during the global economic crisis as people have moved to less expensive brands. The country cleverly has a wine marketing strategy based on Australia’s experience. This is an ambitious plan with the goal of capturing 10 percent of the global wine market share by 2020.

Argentina also aggressively pursues new markets by visiting them regularly and doing wine promotions and tastings with potential customers. It also brings people to the country to visit the wineries and experience Argentinean culture and food.

In North Africa, Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco have a long history cultivating wine and have been winning awards since the 1859 Fall Exposition in Paris. Over the years quality control was an issue as political and economic factors disrupted access to global markets. But in the last few years governments have been working to support the industry and regain its past reputation.

Winemaking in North Africa goes back to the Romans and the Phoenicians. Despite Islam prohibiting the consumption of alcohol, the industry has survived. The industry is currently being re-organized to make the most of a free trade agreement with the European Union.

Tunisia has a long, rich winemaking heritage known the world over. About half of Tunisia’s vineyards are dedicated to producing grapes for wine production rather than for sale as table grapes.

Over the last 20 years, Les Vignerons de Carthage, a cooperative of 10 cellars located in the Cap Bon region of Northern Tunisia, have been working under the leadership of Belgacem D’Khili, a Bordeaux trained oenologist to improve and maintain wine quality.

They have kept the old vines, persevered with hand-harvesting and traditional techniques, but have modernised the cellar equipment, the storage and overall approach to hygiene.

North African wines are being collectively marketed by resellers like Cotes d’Afrique (http://www.cotes-d-afrique.co.uk/tunisianwine/history.aspx).

Morocco, too, has become a respected wine maker and has a robust domestic wine-drinking market. Morocco’s oldest winery, Celliers de Meknes (http://www.lescelliersdemeknes.net/), told the Global Post how it handles the delicacies of wine-making in a majority Muslim country.

“We are tolerated,” said Jean-Pierre Dehut, the export manager for Celliers de Meknes. “But the tolerance requires that we stay within certain boundaries.”

Celliers de Meknes sells some 30 million bottles of wine per year — 25 million in Morocco.

A little-known wine producer, Zimbabwe has been producing wines since the early 1950s and commercially since 1965, according to Zimbabwe Tourism. Production peaked in the 1980s and later suffered from an export ban. Despite the country’s economic and political problems, the wine industry has grown. New techniques, equipment and grape varietals have been introduced and winemakers have been trained in Germany, Australia and South Africa. Regular visits from outside consultants have helped with raising standards.

Apart from economic problems the industry struggled with viruses and climate. But since the 1990s the industry has started to win international wine competitions

One of the successful wineries is Mukuyu Winery (http://www.africanbeersandwine.com/pages/wine.html), which produces an average of 1.5 million litres per year from 100 hectares under vines. Over the past 13 years, Mukuyu wines have won Silver and Bronze medals at the International Wine and Spirit Competition in London, and regional wine tasting competitions in South Africa.

By David South, Development Challenges, South-South Solutions

Published: January 2011

Development Challenges, South-South Solutions was launched as an e-newsletter in 2006 by UNDP's South-South Cooperation Unit (now the United Nations Office for South-South Cooperation) based in New York, USA. It led on profiling the rise of the global South as an economic powerhouse and was one of the first regular publications to champion the global South's innovators, entrepreneurs, and pioneers. It tracked the key trends that are now so profoundly reshaping how development is seen and done. This includes the rapid take-up of mobile phones and information technology in the global South (as profiled in the first issue of magazine Southern Innovator), the move to becoming a majority urban world, a growing global innovator culture, and the plethora of solutions being developed in the global South to tackle its problems and improve living conditions and boost human development. The success of the e-newsletter led to the launch of the magazine Southern Innovator.  

Follow @SouthSouth1

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Turning Animal Waste Into Paper

Animal waste is a messy fact of daily life in rural communities across the global South. This byproduct of life has many uses – but an ingredient for making writing paper is probably not the first that springs to mind.

But animal dung is cleverly being recycled into high-value products in Sri Lanka and Thailand. Both countries have elephants who are under threat. In Sri Lanka (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sri_Lanka) the large but endangered elephant population is considered a nuisance. They damage crops and are often killed for this reason. There are upwards of 3,000 elephants in the country – down from 14,000 in the 1800s. Nonetheless, they create vast quantities of excrement. In Sri Lanka, they face many threats: ivory poachers, being killed to protect crops and houses, starvation from drought and deforestation.

Animal waste (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feces) has many uses: it can be turned into fertilizer for crops, fuel for cooking, placed in a digester and fermented into bio-gas for heating and cooking, and if from a herbivore animal, into fibrous products like paper and cardboard. Packing boxes can also be made from the excrement.

As a vegetarian animal, elephants’ excrement and dung is made up of vegetable matter and is rich in cellulose (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cellulose). And cellulose is what makes up the majority of traditional wood-pulp paper (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pulp_%28paper%29).

Re-using the waste is also a good way to make elephants valuable to local people, rather than just being perceived as a nuisance.

Dung produces a natural, recycled paper. While harvesting trees for paper is an expensive and energy-wasting process, the elephant’s digestive tract does the hard work by breaking down the cellulose, making it ideal for the next stage in becoming a paper product.

According to the Environmental Paper Network (http://www.environmentalpaper.org/stateofthepaperindustry/confirm.htm), 50 percent of the world’s forests have been destroyed, and 80 percent of the remaining forests are in a degraded state.  By turning to alternative sources to make paper, trees are saved and vast quantities of energy reduced. Traditional paper-making also uses many chemicals in the process, something that is avoided in using animal dung. Vegetable products are used to bind the paper together and water-soluble dyes are used to colour the paper.

Dung paper has earned some high-profile fans as well. The Turner Prize-winning British/Nigerian artist Chris Ofili (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Ofili), uses elephant dung paper in his works.

The Elephant Dung Paper company (www.elephantdungpaper.com) in Thailand was one of the first to pioneer the technique. This business was started by dung paper pioneer Mr. Wan Chai. He tells a story of how he became enchanted by the paper-making process when he walked past a paper factory one day. Later, when he was at the Thai Elephant Conservation Center in Lampang, northern Thailand (http://www.changthai.com), he noticed the elephant dung was rich in fibres like those used in making paper from wood pulp.

Inspired, he embarked on a process of trial and error using his wife’s food processor to turn elephant dung into a fibrous stew that is then shaped, dyed and dried to make paper (http://www.elephantdungpaper.com/process.html).

Wan Chai has gone on to be a formative influence in the founding of a sheep dung paper making operation in Britain, Creative Paper Wales.

Another dung paper business is Mr. Ellie Pooh (http://www.mrelliepooh.com/) in Sri Lanka. Established with the goal of reducing conflict between humans and elephants, it has turned to making paper products to boost local incomes and create a direct economic incentive to protect the elephants. It is setting up handmade paper workshops in rural areas and teaming them with artisans to add value to the products and make them more desirable. Design is critical to making any product – no matter how ethically produced and how green – desirable to consumers.

The dung products Mr. Ellie Pooh makes include a wide variety of coloured papers, scrapbooks, note boxes, stationery pouches, greeting cards, ‘to do’ list pads, memo books, and a children’s book.

The process of making elephant dung paper takes about 13 days – three days of sorting, boiling and disinfecting, followed by 10 days to pulp, mix, press and dry the paper. Mr. Ellie Pooh makes about 1,000 sheets a day and 30,000 a month. Each sheet makes six A4-size pieces of paper.

The company was founded by Dr. Karl Wald and Thusitha Ranasinghe, and is managed by recycled paper firm Ecomaximus (http://www.ecomaximus.com/) based in Colombo, Sri Lanka, with a workshop in Kegalle.

Ecomaximus was started in 1997 by its Managing Director, Ranasinghe, who was following a family tradition going back three generations of working in printing.

The business started recycling waste printing paper and then moved into recycling a wide variety of other cellulose waste: rice paddy straw, cinnamon and banana bark. It now employs over 35 people on two sites.

It is proof that it just takes creativity and a new perspective to turn something considered as waste into wealth: and jobs and sustainable incomes.

By David South, Development Challenges, South-South Solutions

Published: January 2011

Development Challenges, South-South Solutions was launched as an e-newsletter in 2006 by UNDP's South-South Cooperation Unit (now the United Nations Office for South-South Cooperation) based in New York, USA. It led on profiling the rise of the global South as an economic powerhouse and was one of the first regular publications to champion the global South's innovators, entrepreneurs, and pioneers. It tracked the key trends that are now so profoundly reshaping how development is seen and done. This includes the rapid take-up of mobile phones and information technology in the global South (as profiled in the first issue of magazine Southern Innovator), the move to becoming a majority urban world, a growing global innovator culture, and the plethora of solutions being developed in the global South to tackle its problems and improve living conditions and boost human development. The success of the e-newsletter led to the launch of the magazine Southern Innovator.  

Follow @SouthSouth1

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Djibouti Re-shapes Itself as African Trade Hub

Trade hubs can prove to be decisive in boosting regional growth. Trade hubs are places where commerce congregates, for a mix of geographical, cultural and economic reasons. Like a bicycle wheel, a trade hub sits at the centre as the spokes of trade routes travel towards it. Throughout history, trade hubs have emerged, from the outposts of the Silk Route running through Asia and Central Asia to the Hanseatic League cities of Northern Europe in the Middle Ages.

Trade is critical to increasing prosperity, and the more efficient trade becomes – and the greater the variety of goods and affordable prices – the higher the standard of living for the nations doing the trading.

With South-South trade the great economic success story of the past decade, new trade hubs are emerging. World Trade Organization (WTO) (www.wto.org) figures show South-South trade accounted for 16.4 percent of the US $14 trillion in total world exports in 2007, up from 11.5 percent in 2000. While the global economic crisis has slowed things down, the overall trend is firmly established.

One country hoping to become a key 21st century trade hub is the tiny African nation of Djibouti, which sits strategically between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. It is surrounded by the nations of Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia and is across the Bab al Mandab Strait from Yemen.

It is at the nexus of Africa and Asia. Some of the busiest shipping lanes in the world float by the country’s coastline. Much of the oil shipped to Europe and the United States passes by.

“Djibouti is perfectly positioned to become a services and logistics hub,” said Jerome Martins Oliveira, chief executive officer of Djibouti port, operated by a subsidiary of Dubai World.

PwC (PriceWaterhouseCoopers) (http://www.pwc.co.uk), which recently published its third Transportation & Logistics 2030 Report, predicts that global trade hubs and routes will shift to emerging markets within the next 20 years.

“Trade volumes will move towards emerging markets such as Africa or Asia and competition for future large transport contracts will be determined within the next few years,” said Akhter Moosa, PwC’s South African Transport and Logistics Leader.

This underscores the growing importance of emerging markets. The majority of global trade is forecast to shift to emerging markets by 2030. As the trade shifts, so new trade routes emerge. PwC sees strong links between Asia and Africa and Asia and South America, as well as trade within Asia, transforming global supply chains.

Hot spots for trade are showing impressive growth. Trade between Asia and the former Soviet states grows at 42 percent a year. The volume of trade between South America and Africa is growing by double digits.

“China already owns seven of the world’s twenty largest ports,” said Christopher Siewierski, associate director in Corporate Finance at PwC. “India, Russia and South Africa are also expected to play a significant role as logistics giants.”

Respondents to the Transportation & Logistics 2030 Report
(http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/transportation-logistics/tl2030/tl2030-pub.jhtml ) believe it is unlikely that companies from emerging countries will seek further growth in the developed European and North American markets. Instead, they will concentrate on domestic markets and the strong growing neighbouring countries.

All of this is good news for Djibouti. At present, the population of Djibouti
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Djibouti) is small at around 864,202 people (2009 World Bank).

Ancient Djibouti traded hides and skins for the perfumes of Egypt, India and China: a classic South-South trade heritage. Djibouti became a French colony and gained its independence from France in 1977.

The geography is harsh: a rocky semi desert of plateaus and highlands. Djibouti has few resources, apart from its large salt reserves – the country has a long history of salt mining. Djibouti must depend on foreign assistance – or innovative trade.

Djibouti has to be clever in increasing income opportunities: the country has an estimated unemployment rate of between 40 and 50 percent. The country is heavily dependent on imports for food and fuel, and over the past decade has experienced recession – in the wake of a 1991 to 1994 civil war – and a growing population.

For years, the tiny state was overlooked and development had proceeded at a slow pace. But now investment from Dubai is pouring in to upgrade the port to make it a regional gateway.

The Djibouti Free Zone (http://www.djiboutifz.com/) was set up in the wake of the country being designated a free-export processing zone in 1995. In practice, this means a company or business working to export products can be designated as an Export Processing Company (EPC).

It was created to re-shape the landscape in Africa when it comes to trade. Push out the red tape, and bring efficiency and plenty of services: the prime habitat for business to flourish free of restrictions. Prospective businesses can find modern offices, distribution, storage and light manufacturing facilities.

Djibouti provides services as both a transit port for the region and an international trans shipment and refuelling center.

And even more ambitious plans are afoot: a multi-billion dollar, 29-kilometre bridge across the Red Sea has been proposed. The Bridge of the Horns (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bridge_of_the_Horns) will link Djibouti with Yemen and two new cities will be built on either side of the bridge. The new Noor City on the Djibouti side will become the “financial, educational, and medical hub of Africa” according to its developers.

Elsewhere, the United States is funding and operating four regional trade and competiveness hubs in sub-Saharan Africa. They aim to assist, enhance and broaden the flow of trade between the United States and the region, both inside and outside the terms of the historic African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) (http://www.agoa.gov/). The four trade hubs — located in Ghana, Senegal, Botswana and Kenya — provide information and technical expertise to enhance and expand bilateral trade between the United States and Africa.

By David South, Development Challenges, South-South Solutions

Published: December 2010

Development Challenges, South-South Solutions was launched as an e-newsletter in 2006 by UNDP's South-South Cooperation Unit (now the United Nations Office for South-South Cooperation) based in New York, USA. It led on profiling the rise of the global South as an economic powerhouse and was one of the first regular publications to champion the global South's innovators, entrepreneurs, and pioneers. It tracked the key trends that are now so profoundly reshaping how development is seen and done. This includes the rapid take-up of mobile phones and information technology in the global South (as profiled in the first issue of magazine Southern Innovator), the move to becoming a majority urban world, a growing global innovator culture, and the plethora of solutions being developed in the global South to tackle its problems and improve living conditions and boost human development. The success of the e-newsletter led to the launch of the magazine Southern Innovator.  

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